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First signs of transition: The parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality in the province of Padua (northeast Italy), 1816‒1870

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Minello

    (Università degli Studi di Padova (UNIPD))

  • Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna

    (Università degli Studi di Padova (UNIPD))

  • Guido Alfani

    (Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi)

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality at the beginning of the demographic transition in a European high-neonatal mortality context. Methods: We use an individual-nominative linked database of 33,000 births and 10,000 deaths for 11 parishes in the province of Padua (northeast Italy) from 1816 to 1870. We utilize life tables, logistic regressions, and two-level logistic regressions, including characteristics of the family. Results: Life tables and regression models show that during the winter, the association between early baptism and the risk of death is pronounced. The connection persists also during the summer, when the exposure to low temperature could not influence the risk of death, and a reverse effect could prevail. (Children in periculo mortis were immediately baptized.) Family behaviours influence both early baptism and early death. Conclusions: The data shows clearly that those social groups and families and those areas experiencing the most intense decline in early baptism were also those in which mortality during the first three months of life declined more. However, it is not true that - as suggested by commentators at the time - the strong statistical connection between the two events was just a direct one, with cold exposure exacerbated by early baptism increasing the risk of dying from hypothermia or respiratory diseases. Contribution: We first show that in the province of Padua during the central part of the 19th century (1816‒1870), there is a clear and strong statistical connection between the decline of early mortality and the decline of early baptism. Second, we try to disentangle the meaning of this connection.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Minello & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Guido Alfani, 2017. "First signs of transition: The parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality in the province of Padua (northeast Italy), 1816‒1870," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(27), pages 759-802.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:36:y:2017:i:27
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna & Alessandro Rosina, 2011. "An Analysis of Extremely High Nineteenth-Century Winter Neonatal Mortality in a Local Context of Northeastern Italy [Une analyse des niveaux extrêmement élevés de mortalité néonatale hivernale au 1," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 33-55, February.
    2. Leonardo Piccione & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Alessandra Minello, 2014. "Mortality selection in the first three months of life and survival in the following thirty-three months in rural Veneto (North-East Italy) from 1816 to 1835," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(39), pages 1199-1228.
    3. Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Fiorenzo Rossi, 2010. "Comparisons of infant mortality in the Austrian Empire Länder using the Tafeln (1851-54)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(26), pages 813-862.
    4. Omar Paccagnella, 2006. "Centering or Not Centering in Multilevel Models? The Role of the Group Mean and the Assessment of Group Effects," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 66-85, February.
    5. Guido Alfani, 2011. "Population Dynamics, Malthusian Crises and Boserupian Innovation in Pre-Industrial Societies: The Case Study of Northern Italy (ca. 1450-1800) in the Light of Lee’s "Dynamic Synthesis"," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 23-56, April-Jun.
    6. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandra Minello & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Guido Alfani, 2021. "The growing number of given names as a clue to the beginning of the demographic transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(6), pages 187-220.
    2. Francisco J Beltrán Tapia & Francisco J Marco-Gracia, 2022. "Death, sex, and fertility: female infanticide in rural Spain, 1750–1950 [Son targeting fertility behaviour: some consequences and determinants]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(2), pages 234-254.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; children; Italy; seasonality; family; Baptism; Veneto region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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