IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v26y2012i13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is fertility stalling in Jordan?

Author

Listed:
  • Valeria Cetorelli

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Tiziana Leone

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

Background: Most of the recent literature on fertility stalls has concentrated on sub-Saharan Africa and has highlighted flaws in DHS data. No similar detailed research exists for presumed stalls occurring in countries outside that region. This is particularly surprising when considering that cases of fertility stalls have also been suggested in Middle Eastern countries, including in Egypt, Syria and among the Palestinians in Israel and the occupied Territory. Objective: The present paper is the first to study an apparent fertility stall in Jordan, using five DHS surveys, and to carry out a rigorous three-stage analysis to assess its genuiness. Methods: First, the quality of data concerning age and birth dates of women and their children is evaluated to control for possible misreporting. Second, retrospective fertility rates are calculated from each survey and a reliable fertility trend covering over 30 years is reconstructed from pooled data of all surveys. Finally, a linear regression model is fitted to assess whether the rate of fertility decline in the stalling period differs significantly from the rate of decline in the preceding period and is not statistically different from zero. Results: The analysis demonstrates that not only is the stall real and not due to data errors, but it is also one of the longest lasting recently assessed. Since more than a decade, fertility in Jordan has remained relatively constant at a rate exceeding 3.5 children per woman. Conclusions: This has important policy implications. It suggests the need for greater attention to possible cases of similar stalls in neighbouring countries and in-depth investigations of their determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Cetorelli & Tiziana Leone, 2012. "Is fertility stalling in Jordan?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(13), pages 293-318.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:26:y:2012:i:13
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol26/13/26-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.13?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cai:poeine:pope_405_0689 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Petra Nahmias & Guy Stecklov, 2007. "The dynamics of fertility amongst Palestinians in Israel from 1980 to 2000," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 71-99, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carmen Friedrich & Henriette Engelhardt & Florian Schulz, 2021. "Women’s Agency in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia: The Role of Parenthood and Education," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1025-1059, October.
    2. Caroline Krafft & Elizabeth Kula & Maia Sieverding, 2021. "An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(19), pages 605-652.
    3. Konstantin Kazenin & Vladimir Kozlov, 2020. "What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 185-213.
    4. Valeria Cetorelli, 2014. "The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 581-604, December.
    5. Aurora Angeli & Marco Novelli, 2017. "Transitions in Late-Life Living Arrangements and Socio-economic Conditions of the Elderly in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia," Working Papers 1083, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara S. Okun, 2013. "Fertility and marriage behavior in Israel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(17), pages 457-504.
    2. Thorsten Janus, 2013. "The political economy of fertility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 493-505, June.
    3. Jona Schellekens & A’as Atrash, 2018. "Religiosity and marital fertility among Muslims in Israel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(34), pages 911-926.
    4. Øystein Kravdal, 2012. "Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(22), pages 645-680.
    5. Alisa C. Lewin, 2012. "Marriage Patterns Among Palestinians in Israel [Schémas de Nuptialité Chez Les Palestiniens d’Israël]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 359-380, August.
    6. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility transition; fertility stall; Middle East; Jordan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:26:y:2012:i:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.