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Modeling fertility curves in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ezra Gayawan

    (Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA))

  • Samson B. Adebayo

    (Society for Family Health (SFH))

  • Reuben A. Ipinyomi

    (University of Ilorin)

  • Benjamin Oyejola

    (University of Ilorin)

Abstract

The modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaike’s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Ezra Gayawan & Samson B. Adebayo & Reuben A. Ipinyomi & Benjamin Oyejola, 2010. "Modeling fertility curves in Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(10), pages 211-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:10
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Joop de Beer, 2011. "A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates: TOPALS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(18), pages 409-454.
    2. Ezra Gayawan & Samson B. Adebayo, 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(45), pages 1339-1372.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age-specific fertility rate (ASFR); Africa; cubic/quadratic spline; polynomial model; complementary error function; Akaike Information Criterion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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