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Estimating Parametric Fertility Models with Open Birth Interval Data

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Schmertmann

    (Florida State University)

  • André Junqueira Caetano

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

In the past thirty years, more than 100 censuses gathered fertility data through questions on women's date of last birth. The standard "births last year" (BLY) approach for such data truncates timing information, using binary indicators for births in the prior year only. The first author recently proposed consistent, maximum-likelihood estimation approaches using untruncated date of last birth (DLB). In this paper we extend DLB techniques to parametric models. We construct estimators for Coale-Trussell M and m parameters from open interval lengths. We apply the new procedure to Brazilian census data, producing maps and spatial statistics for BLY and DLB m estimates in 723 municipalities in Minas Gerais. DLB estimators are less sensitive to sampling error than BLY estimators. This increased precision leads to clearer spatial patterns of fertility control, and to improved regression. (NOTE from the editorial office: to best view the HTML of this article, you should be using Windows 95 or higher. Readers using other operating systems may not be able to view all of the embedded symbols, and we suggest they use the PDF version instead.)

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Schmertmann & André Junqueira Caetano, 1999. "Estimating Parametric Fertility Models with Open Birth Interval Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(5).
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:1:y:1999:i:5
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.1999.1.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Srinivasan, 1970. "Findings and implications of a correlation analysis of the closed and the open birth intervals," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 7(4), pages 401-410, November.
    2. K. Srinivasan, 1968. "A set of analytical models for the study of open birth intervals," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 5(1), pages 34-44, March.
    3. Carl Schmertmann, 1999. "Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 505-519, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Brazil; statistics; open birth intervals; Coale-Trussell model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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