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Tracing very long-term kinship networks using SOCSIM

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  • Mike Murphy

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

While each individual has 10 billion ancestors a thousand years ago, these are not distinct and in practice, the number of distinct ancestors is much smaller. A female (‘mitochondrial Eve’) and a male ancestor (‘Y-chromosome Adam’) of all humans certainly existed, possibly about 100,000 years ago, and a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all humans existed much more recently. I use the SOCSIM micro simulation program to estimate the patterns of descent over periods of several centuries, using as indicators,:the proportion of people without any living descendants; the mean number of distinct descendants; and the genetic contribution to later populations. About three quarters of those born in the past have no descendant, mainly because they did not reach the age of reproduction. After about 500 years, the number of descendants with the populations sizes used her, about 4,000, the number of descendants becomes very similar and close to the size of the number of descendants, confirming that even in these timescale, in the past, a person is either the ancestor of everyone, or of no-one. However, the genetic contribution does not exhibit a similar tendency to uniformity. Issues such as the relevant measures of generational replacement to cases with multiple lines of descent are also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Mike Murphy, 2004. "Tracing very long-term kinship networks using SOCSIM," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(7), pages 171-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:10:y:2004:i:7
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.10.7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ulrich Mueller, 2001. "Is There a Stabilizing Selection Around Average Fertility in Modern Human Populations?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(3), pages 469-498, September.
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1998_10n1_0136 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emilio Zagheni, 2023. "Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    3. Jakub Bijak & Jason D. Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766.
    4. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Matsen, Frederick A. & Evans, Steven N., 2008. "To what extent does genealogical ancestry imply genetic ancestry?," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 182-190.

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      genetics; kinship; micro-simulation;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
      • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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