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The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Esther Gordo
  • Eddie Casey
  • Inna Oliinyk
  • Willem-Pieter de Groen
  • José Miguel Ramos Carrasco
  • James Jolovski

Abstract

Weakened growth, along with the use of automatic stabilisers and additional fiscal stimulus measures, has led to higher public debt levels. Against this backdrop, the present paper aims to assess the role of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), focusing on their public debt modelling. The paper draws on new data from a review of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) practices in the EU and a survey of members of the Network of EU IFIs. More specifically, it explores the main challenges for IFIs in modelling public debt in times of greater unpredictability, higher public debt, and low interest rates. Drawing on the experiences of various IFIs, the paper offers preliminary insights into how to address these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Esther Gordo & Eddie Casey & Inna Oliinyk & Willem-Pieter de Groen & José Miguel Ramos Carrasco & James Jolovski, 2021. "The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 67(3), pages 199-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v67_y2021_i3_q3_p199-223
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.67.3.199
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Independent Fiscal Institutions; Public Debt; Debt Sustainability Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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