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Crowded Space, Fertile Ground: Party Entry and the Effective Number of Parties

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  • Kselman, Daniel M.
  • Powell, Eleanor Neff
  • Tucker, Joshua A.

Abstract

This paper develops a novel argument as to the conditions under which new political parties will form in democratic states. Our approach hinges on the manner in which politicians evaluate the policy implications of new party entry alongside considerations of incumbency for its own sake. We demonstrate that if candidates care sufficiently about policy outcomes, then the likelihood of party entry should increase with the effective number of status quo parties in the party system. This relationship weakens, and eventually disappears, as politicians’ emphasis on “office-seeking” motivations increases relative to their interest in public policy. We test these predictions with both aggregate electoral data in contemporary Europe and a data set on legislative volatility in Turkey, uncovering support for the argument that party system fragmentation should positively affect the likelihood of entry when policy-seeking motivations are relevant, but not otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Kselman, Daniel M. & Powell, Eleanor Neff & Tucker, Joshua A., 2016. "Crowded Space, Fertile Ground: Party Entry and the Effective Number of Parties," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 317-342, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:4:y:2016:i:02:p:317-342_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Otjes & André Krouwel, 2023. "The nuclear option: Voting for the pan-European party Volt," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(4), pages 726-750, December.
    2. Daniel M Kselman, 2020. "Public goods equilibria under closed- and open-list proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 112-142, January.

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