Beyond Valence: Estimating Models of Party Choice Without Resort to Ecological Fallacy or Unfounded Causal Assumptions. A Reply to Whiteley et al.

Whiteley et al. criticize our re-analysis of the valence model of party choice. In reply, we argue that they are mistaken with regard to their understanding of some of the claims made in our paper and, in one instance, the variables included in the analysis. We also point to flaws in their interpretation of the distinction between weak and contemporaneous endogeneity and the assumptions of their vector error correction model. Their argument privileging aggregate analysis introduces predictable inferential problems and also, it might be suggested, potentially casts doubt on their own research, which uses individual-level analysis to make the case for the valence model. For these reasons, we see no reason to moderate the negative implications of our analysis for the validity of the model.