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African Borders as Sources of Natural Experiments Promise and Pitfalls

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  • McCauley, John F.
  • Posner, Daniel N.

Abstract

Africa’s arbitrary country borders have been seized upon as sources of “natural experiments”: having randomly assigned people to different country treatments, differences in outcomes on either side of the border can then be attributed to the institutions, demographics, or policies put in place in each country. While methodologically attractive, the use of African borders as sources of natural experiments presents several potential pitfalls. We describe these pitfalls—some common to all studies that employ jurisdictional boundaries, some unique to African borders—and offer guidelines for overcoming them. We conclude that African cross-border studies can provide research advantages similar to well-executed comparative case studies, but that they frequently offer weaker inferential leverage than is claimed.

Suggested Citation

  • McCauley, John F. & Posner, Daniel N., 2015. "African Borders as Sources of Natural Experiments Promise and Pitfalls," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 409-418, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:409-418_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaku Ito, 2021. "Why does ethnic partition foster violence? Unpacking the deep historical roots of civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 986-1003, September.
    2. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ömer Özak, 2023. "(De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa," Departmental Working Papers 2303, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    3. Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Özak, Ömer, 2019. "Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa," MPRA Paper 110197, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2021.
    4. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Blesse, Sebastian, 2019. "Subnational border reforms and economic development in Africa," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.
    5. Lazarev, Egor & Mironova, Vera, 2018. "The economic consequences of political alienation: Ethnic minority status and investment behavior in a post-conflict society," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-39.
    6. van Baalen, Sebastian, 2024. "Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. McNamee, Lachlan, 2019. "Indirect colonial rule and the salience of ethnicity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 142-156.

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