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Economic Shocks and Democratization in Africa

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  • Barron, Manuel
  • Miguel, Edward
  • Satyanath, Shanker

Abstract

The literature on the determinants of democratization has long been dominated by a view that claimed a central role for economic development (‘modernization’). Acemoglu et al. (2008, 2009) have recently challenged the robustness of empirical support for the modernization hypothesis. As an alternative, they claim that democratization is likely to occur in moments of economic crisis. Brückner and Ciccone (2011) appear to offer strong support for this latter view, and claim that lagged adverse GDP shocks generated by poor rainfall generate ‘windows of opportunity’ for democratization in contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa. The current article presents evidence that Brückner and Ciccone's provocative finding does not survive several sensible robustness checks, calling into question whether their claim in fact offers new insights into the process of democratization.

Suggested Citation

  • Barron, Manuel & Miguel, Edward & Satyanath, Shanker, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Democratization in Africa," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 33-47, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:2:y:2014:i:01:p:33-47_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Salgado Chavez, Edgar, 2017. "Essays on beliefs, democracy and local labor markets: an empirical examination for Peru," Economics PhD Theses 0717, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen, 2017. "The Return to Foreign Aid," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    3. Paul Maarek & Michael T. Borsch, 2014. "Recessions, Inequality, and Democratization," THEMA Working Papers 2014-19, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen, 2017. "The Return to Foreign Aid," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    5. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Dorsch Michael T. & Maarek Paul, 2014. "A Note on Economic Inequality and Democratization," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 599-610, December.
    7. Ivar Kolstad & Arne Wiig, 2014. "Diversification and democracy," CMI Working Papers 9, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    8. Toke S. Aidt & Gabriel Leon, 2016. "The Democratic Window of Opportunity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(4), pages 694-717, June.

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