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Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: evidence from Jerusalem

Author

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  • Weiss, Chagai M.
  • Tsur, Neal
  • Miodownik, Dan
  • Lupu, Yonatan
  • Finkel, Evgeny

Abstract

What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiss, Chagai M. & Tsur, Neal & Miodownik, Dan & Lupu, Yonatan & Finkel, Evgeny, 2024. "Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: evidence from Jerusalem," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 399-406, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:12:y:2024:i:2:p:399-406_11
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