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Uncertainty and Turnout

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  • Sanders, Mitchell S.

Abstract

This article develops a model that simultaneously considers individual turnout and vote choice while also accounting for uncertainty about candidates. The theoretical development of this model implies that the effects of uncertainty on turnout vary with the strength of individual preferences. Application of the model to individual choice in the 1996 American presidential election confirms that decreasing uncertainty about the character traits of the candidates decreases the probability of abstention for individuals with strong preferences but increases the probability of abstention for individuals with weak preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanders, Mitchell S., 2001. "Uncertainty and Turnout," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 45-57, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:9:y:2001:i:01:p:45-57_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentino Larcinese, 2009. "Information Acquisition, Ideology and Turnout: Theory and Evidence From Britain," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 237-276, April.
    2. Valentino Larcinese, 2007. "Does political knowledge increase turnout? Evidence from the 1997 British general election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 387-411, June.
    3. Franziska Marquart & Jakob Ohme & Judith Möller, 2020. "Following Politicians on Social Media: Effects for Political Information, Peer Communication, and Youth Engagement," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(2), pages 197-207.
    4. Song Xi Chen & Denis H. Y. Leung & Jing Qin, 2008. "Improving semiparametric estimation by using surrogate data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 803-823, September.
    5. Tim Powlowski & Dennis Coates, 2013. "The habit for voting, “civic duty” and travel distance," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 13-05, UMBC Department of Economics.

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