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Panel Effects in the American National Election Studies

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  • Bartels, Larry M.

Abstract

Parallel panel and fresh cross-section samples in recent National Election Study surveys provide valuable leverage for assessing the magnitude of biases in statistical analyses of survey data due to panel attrition and panel conditioning. My analyses employing a variety of typical regression models suggest that substantial panel biases are likely to be fairly rare in these data, even when panel and cross-section respondents have markedly different characteristics. However, two of the dependent variables considered here—campaign interest and turnout—do appear to be sufficiently sensitive to panel effects to warrant significant discounting or adjustment of panel data. I propose adjustments for panel effects in both cross-sectional and dynamic analyses, based upon variants of the “fractional pooling” (Bartels 1996) and “two-stage auxiliary instrumental variables” (Franklin 1990) methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartels, Larry M., 1999. "Panel Effects in the American National Election Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:8:y:1999:i:01:p:1-20_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Das & Vera Toepoel & Arthur van Soest, 2011. "Nonparametric Tests of Panel Conditioning and Attrition Bias in Panel Surveys," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 40(1), pages 32-56, February.
    2. Toepoel, V. & Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2008. "Design Effects in Web Surveys : Comparing Trained and Fresh Respondents," Discussion Paper 2008-51, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Alexander De Juan & Carlo Koos, 2021. "Survey participation effects in conflict research," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(4), pages 623-639, July.
    4. Auspurg, Katrin & Burton, Jonathan & Cullinane, Carl & Delavande, Adeline & Laura, Fumagalli & Iacovou, Maria & Jäckle, Annette & Kaminska, Olena & Lynn, Peter & Mathews, Paul & Nicolaas, Gerry & Nic, 2013. "Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 5: results from methodological experiments," Understanding Society Working Paper Series 2013-06, Understanding Society at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Das, J.W.M. & Toepoel, V. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2007. "Can I use a Panel? Panel Conditioning and Attrition Bias in Panel Surveys," Discussion Paper 2007-56, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. John Robert Warren & Andrew Halpern-Manners, 2012. "Panel Conditioning in Longitudinal Social Science Surveys," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 41(4), pages 491-534, November.
    7. Burton, Jonathan & Laurie, Heather & Uhrig, S.C. Noah, 2010. "Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 2: results from methodological experiments," Understanding Society Working Paper Series 2010-04, Understanding Society at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Das, J.W.M. & Toepoel, V. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2007. "Can I use a Panel? Panel Conditioning and Attrition Bias in Panel Surveys," Other publications TiSEM 9407cc7a-23f1-49b9-990d-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Hae-Jeung Lee & Sangshin Park & Cho-il Kim & Doo-won Choi & Jung Sun Lee & Sun Min Oh & Eunyoung Cho & Hye Kyung Park & Kwang-il Kwon & Sang Woo Oh, 2013. "The Association between Disturbed Eating Behavior and Socioeconomic Status: The Online Korean Adolescent Panel Survey (OnKAPS)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-7, March.
    10. repec:gig:joupla:v:2:y:2010:i:3:p:3-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Budd, Sarah & Gilbert, Emily & Burton, Jonathan & Jäckle, Annette & Kaminska, Olena & Uhrig, S.C. Noah & Brown, Matthew & Calderwood, Lisa, 2012. "Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 4: results from methodological experiments," Understanding Society Working Paper Series 2012-06, Understanding Society at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    12. María Isabel Delgado-Piña & Óscar Rodríguez-Ruiz & Antonio Rodríguez-Duarte & Miguel Ángel Sastre-Castillo, 2020. "Gender Diversity in Spanish Banks: Trickle-Down and Productivity Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Toepoel, V. & Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2008. "Design Effects in Web Surveys : Comparing Trained and Fresh Respondents," Other publications TiSEM 4c8b40aa-7557-4844-9474-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Andrew Halpern-Manners & John Warren, 2012. "Panel Conditioning in Longitudinal Studies: Evidence From Labor Force Items in the Current Population Survey," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1499-1519, November.
    15. Jae Yeon Kim, 2021. "Integrating human and machine coding to measure political issues in ethnic newspaper articles," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 585-612, November.

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