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A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness

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  • Kayser, Mark Andreas
  • Lindstädt, René

Abstract

Electoral competitiveness is a key explanatory construct across a broad swath of phenomena, finding application in diverse areas related to political incentives and behavior. Despite its frequent theoretical use, no valid measure of electoral competitiveness exists that applies across different electoral and party systems. We argue that one particular type of electoral competitiveness'electoral risk'can be estimated across institutional contexts and matters most for incumbent behavior. We propose, estimate, and make available a cross-nationally applicable measure for elections in 22 developed democracies between 1960 and 2011. Unlike extant alternatives, our measure captures vote volatility and is constructed at the party (not system) level, exogenous to most policy predictors, and congruent with the perceptions and incentives of policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kayser, Mark Andreas & Lindstädt, René, 2015. "A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 242-253, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:23:y:2015:i:02:p:242-253_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Cazals, Antoine & Léon, Florian, 2023. "Perception of political instability in election periods: Evidence from African firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 259-276.
    2. Satya R. Chakravarty & Manipushpak Mitra & Suresh Mutuswami & Rupayan Pal, 2020. "On the probability ratio index as a measure of electoral competition," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6, December.
    3. Bharatee Bhusana, Ferris, J Stephen Dash & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States," CESifo Working Paper Series 7216, CESifo.
    4. Christopher Wratil, 2018. "Modes of government responsiveness in the European Union: Evidence from Council negotiation positions," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(1), pages 52-74, March.
    5. Wagner, Aiko, 2017. "A micro perspective on political competition: Electoral availability in the European electorates," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 502-520.

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