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Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model

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  • Stegmueller, Daniel

Abstract

Much politico-economic research on individuals' preferences is cross-sectional and does not model dynamic aspects of preference or attitude formation. I present a Bayesian dynamic panel model, which facilitates the analysis of repeated preferences using individual-level panel data. My model deals with three problems. First, I explicitly include feedback from previous preferences taking into account that available survey measures of preferences are categorical. Second, I model individuals' initial conditions when entering the panel as resulting from observed and unobserved individual attributes. Third, I capture unobserved individual preference heterogeneity both via standard parametric random effects and a robust alternative based on Bayesian nonparametric density estimation. I use this model to analyze the impact of income and wealth on preferences for government intervention using the British Household Panel Study from 1991 to 2007.

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  • Stegmueller, Daniel, 2013. "Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 314-333, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:21:y:2013:i:03:p:314-333_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Steele, Fiona & Grundy, Emily, 2021. "Random effects dynamic panel models for unequally-spaced multivariate categorical repeated measures: an application to child-parent exchanges of support," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    3. Fiona Steele & Emily Grundy, 2021. "Random effects dynamic panel models for unequally spaced multivariate categorical repeated measures: an application to child–parent exchanges of support," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 3-23, January.

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