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Observing the Counterfactual? The Search for Political Experiments in Nature

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  • Robinson, Gregory
  • McNulty, John E.
  • Krasno, Jonathan S.

Abstract

A search of recent political science literature and conference presentations shows substantial fascination with the concept of the natural experiment. However, there seems to be a wide array of definitions and applications employed in research that purports to analyze natural experiments. In this introductory essay to the special issue, we attempt to define natural experiments and discuss related issues of research design. In addition, we briefly explore the basic methodological issues around the appropriate analysis of natural experiments and give an overview of different techniques. The overarching theme of this essay and of this issue is to encourage applied researchers to look for natural experiments in their own work and to think more systematically about research design.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Gregory & McNulty, John E. & Krasno, Jonathan S., 2009. "Observing the Counterfactual? The Search for Political Experiments in Nature," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 341-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:17:y:2009:i:04:p:341-357_01
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    1. Marco Pecoraro & Anita Manatschal & Eva G. T. Green & Philippe Wanner, 2019. "Does integration policy improve labour market, sociocultural and psychological adaptation of asylum-related immigrants? Evidence from Sri Lankans in Switzerland," IRENE Working Papers 19-08, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Odelia Oshri & Tamir Sheafer & Shaul R Shenhav, 2016. "A community of values: Democratic identity formation in the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(1), pages 114-137, March.
    3. Tiwari, Smriti, 2017. "Does Local Development Influence Outmigration Decisions? Evidence from Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 108-124.
    4. Messinis, George, 2013. "Returns to education and urban-migrant wage differentials in China: IV quantile treatment effects," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 39-55.
    5. Joakim Kreutz, 2012. "From Tremors to Talks: Do Natural Disasters Produce Ripe Moments for Resolving Separatist Conflicts?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 482-502, September.
    6. Zhorayev, Olzhas, 2020. "Determinants of Trust in Police: A Cross-National Analysis," MPRA Paper 109068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Reeves, Aaron & McKee, Martin & Mackenbach, Johan & Whitehead, Margaret & Stuckler, David, 2017. "Introduction of a national minimum wage reduceddepressive symptoms in low-wage workers:a quasi-natural experiment in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Aaron Reeves & Martin McKee & Johan Mackenbach & Margaret Whitehead & David Stuckler, 2017. "Introduction of a National Minimum Wage Reduced Depressive Symptoms in Low‐Wage Workers: A Quasi‐Natural Experiment in the UK," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 639-655, May.
    9. Jacob Gerner Hariri & Christian Bjørnskov & Mogens K. Justesen, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(1), pages 55-77.
    10. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Narayan, Ambar & Dasgupta, Basab & Kaiser, Kai, 2014. "Electoral accountability and local government spending in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6782, The World Bank.
    11. Rockers, Peter C. & Røttingen, John-Arne & Shemilt, Ian & Tugwell, Peter & Bärnighausen, Till, 2015. "Inclusion of quasi-experimental studies in systematic reviews of health systems research," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(4), pages 511-521.
    12. Benjamin G. Bishin & Thomas J. Hayes & Matthew B. Incantalupo & Charles Anthony Smith, 2021. "Immigration and public opinion: Will backlash impede immigrants’ policy progress?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3036-3049, November.

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