Prospects for Individual Economies

Our estimates indicate that the US economy regained pre-crisis levels of output in the final quarter of 2010, with a full recovery in the levels of consumer spending as well as both exports and imports (see figure 2 above). Investment and inventory levels, however, remain well below pre-crisis levels, offset by higher government spending. The pace of recovery moderated in the second and third quarters of 2010, when annualised growth averaged 2.1 per cent per quarter, somewhat below potential. However, the slowdown was more a reflection of a recovery in import penetration and correction to the level of world trade than a sign of global slump. Domestic demand expanded at an average annualised rate of 4.7 per cent per quarter, pulling in imports and allowing the net trade position to worsen. In the final quarter of the year import growth appears to have moderated, and we expect the current account balance to have stabilised at 3½ per cent of GDP. We estimate that GDP expanded by 2.9 per cent in 2010 as a whole.