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Comparing Bear Markets - 1973 and 2000

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  • Davis, E. Philip

Abstract

In nominal terms, the fall in global share prices since 1999/2000 bears a close resemblance to that experienced worldwide in the years following 1972/3. This article seeks to compare the two periods of market weakness in the G-7 countries in terms not only of share prices but also focusing on macroeconomic trends, financial market developments, sectoral patterns of shareholding and potential wider economic consequences of falling share prices. It is shown that the earlier period was much more severe in terms of adverse economic developments, in particular high inflation. But the current situation also presents some risks, in particular a disruptive correction of US sectoral imbalances.

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  • Davis, E. Philip, 2003. "Comparing Bear Markets - 1973 and 2000," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 183, pages 78-89, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:183:y:2003:i::p:78-89_9
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    Cited by:

    1. L. Di Persio & I. Oliva. K. Wallbaum, 2019. "Options on CPPI with guaranteed minimum equity exposure," Papers 1902.06505, arXiv.org.
    2. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.

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