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Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

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  • Church, Keith B.
  • Sault, Joanne E.
  • Sgherri, Silvia
  • Wallis, Kenneth F.

Abstract

This article analyses the properties of five leading macroeconometric models of the UK economy, as revealed in four simulation experiments. These are carried out in a common operating environment that reflects the broad objectives of current policy — sound public finances and low inflation — by using feedback rules for income tax and interest rates. Developments in the structure of the models as revealed by the series of such exercises carried out during the lifetime of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (1983–99) are described. The development of the research methods through which models' properties were elucidated and analysed is also reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Church, Keith B. & Sault, Joanne E. & Sgherri, Silvia & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171, pages 106-122, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:171:y:2000:i::p:106-122_9
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    Cited by:

    1. K.F. Wallis, 1992. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Modeling," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Darby, Julia & Ireland, Jonathan & Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1998. "COMPACT: a rational expectations, intertemporal model of the United Kingdom economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-52, January.
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      • de Kam, C. A. & de Haan, J. & Giles, C. & Manresa, A. & Berenguer, E. & Calonge, S., 1996. "Who pays the taxes?," MPRA Paper 7146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    7. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    8. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    9. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    11. Jerome Henry & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
    13. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2016. "Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 20-35, January.
    14. Arestis, Philip & McCauley, Kevin & Sawyer, Malcolm, 2001. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 25(1), pages 113-130, January.
    15. J. 0. N. Perkins, 1991. "Possible Policies for Expansion," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 4-15, July.
    16. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    18. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
    19. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
    20. Patrizio Lecca & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2014. "Balanced Budget Multipliers For Small Open Regions Within A Federal System: Evidence From The Scottish Variable Rate Of Income Tax," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 402-421, June.
    21. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    22. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2010. "Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax," Working Papers 1013, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    23. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    24. Chamberlin, G. & Henry, S. G. B. & Satchi, M., 2003. "A model of the G-3," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1083-1095, December.

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