IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/nierev/v164y1998ip65-79_10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Treasury Forecasting Record: Some New Results

Author

Listed:
  • Melliss, Chris
  • Whittaker, Rod

Abstract

We examine the forecasting record of HM Treasury for GDP and the RPI from 1971 to the present. As well as presenting the usual statistical measures of performance, such as Root Mean Squared Errors, and regression tests of forecast efficiency and bias, we test for any relationship between the errors in GDP and RPI forecasts. Confidence intervals are constructed using a classical statistical approach based on past forecast errors, which is similar to that employed in this Review to describe forecast uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Melliss, Chris & Whittaker, Rod, 1998. "The Treasury Forecasting Record: Some New Results," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 164, pages 65-79, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:164:y:1998:i::p:65-79_10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0027950100007407/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 2000. "Sales forecasting updates: how good are they in practice?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 369-382.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2000. "Random matrix theory and the failure of macro-economic forecasts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 280(3), pages 497-504.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:164:y:1998:i::p:65-79_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.