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The Treasury Forecasting Record: Some New Results

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  • Melliss, Chris
  • Whittaker, Rod

Abstract

We examine the forecasting record of HM Treasury for GDP and the RPI from 1971 to the present. As well as presenting the usual statistical measures of performance, such as Root Mean Squared Errors, and regression tests of forecast efficiency and bias, we test for any relationship between the errors in GDP and RPI forecasts. Confidence intervals are constructed using a classical statistical approach based on past forecast errors, which is similar to that employed in this Review to describe forecast uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Melliss, Chris & Whittaker, Rod, 1998. "The Treasury Forecasting Record: Some New Results," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 164, pages 65-79, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:164:y:1998:i::p:65-79_10
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 2000. "Sales forecasting updates: how good are they in practice?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 369-382.
    9. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2000. "Random matrix theory and the failure of macro-economic forecasts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 280(3), pages 497-504.

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