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Heterogeneous Expectations And Asset Price Dynamics

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  • Schmitt, Noemi

Abstract

Within the seminal asset-pricing model by Brock and Hommes (Journal of Economic Dynamics Control 22, 1235–1274, 1998), heterogeneous boundedly rational agents choose between a fixed number of expectation rules to forecast asset prices. However, agents’ heterogeneity is limited in the sense that they typically switch between a representative technical and a representative fundamental expectation rule. Here, we generalize their framework by considering that all agents follow their own time-varying technical and fundamental expectation rules. Estimating our model using the method of simulated moments reveals that it is able to explain the statistical properties of the daily and monthly behavior of the S&P500 quite well. Moreover, our analysis reveals that heterogeneity is not only a realistic model property but clearly helps to explain the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmitt, Noemi, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations And Asset Price Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1538-1568, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:25:y:2021:i:6:p:1538-1568_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivonne Schwartz & Mark Kirstein, 2022. "Time is limited on the road to asymptopia," Papers 2208.08169, arXiv.org.
    2. Filippo Gusella, 2022. "Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2022. "A State-Space Approach for Time-Series Prediction of an Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_20.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    4. Domenico Delli Gatti & Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Endogenous vs Exogenous Instability: An Out-of-Sample Comparison," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_05.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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