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How Does The Macroeconomy Respond To Stock Market Fluctuations? The Role Of Sentiment

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  • Pan, Wei-Fong

Abstract

This study estimates the response of macroeconomic variables to stock market fluctuations in Japan and the United States. It emphasizes the economy's reaction to stock market bubbles and crashes. To do this, I propose a new way to identify bubbles and crashes by testing price-to-fundamental ratios using the newly developed trend-filtering approach. Regardless of the measures used, both countries' macroeconomy tends to respond positively to the positive shock of stock price. Asymmetric effects of the stock market are observed. Japan's macroeconomic variables, especially investment and industrial production, are more sensitive to market crashes, while those of the United States are more sensitive to stock bubbles. Finally, I provide evidence that market sentiment can affect the economy either directly or indirectly through the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Wei-Fong, 2020. "How Does The Macroeconomy Respond To Stock Market Fluctuations? The Role Of Sentiment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 421-446, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:24:y:2020:i:2:p:421-446_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2022. "Asset bubbles, unemployment, and financial market frictions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1806-1832, October.
    2. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma, 2020. "Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and a Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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