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On The (Nonmonotonic) Relation Between Economic Growth And Finance

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  • Bucci, Alberto
  • Marsiglio, Simone
  • Prettner, Catherine

Abstract

We analyze the simplest possible model of endogenous growth to account for the role of financial development. In our setting, financial development affects productivity and determines the amount of resources subtracted to capital investment. We show that under very general assumptions, the relation between economic growth and financial depth is nonmonotonic, and eventually bell-shaped. We empirically assess our results in a framework that allows to distinguish between long-run and short-run effects. We establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial depth–relying on linear as well as nonlinear models for the finance-growth nexus. We employ the results of the first step estimation to specify an error–correction model and find that there is strong evidence for a nonlinear relationship between financial depth and per capita GDP, consistently with what was predicted by our theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucci, Alberto & Marsiglio, Simone & Prettner, Catherine, 2020. "On The (Nonmonotonic) Relation Between Economic Growth And Finance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 93-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:93-112_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2023. "Capital requirements and growth in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2022. "On the transmission mechanisms in the finance–growth nexus in Southern African countries: Does institution matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 153-191, February.
    3. Guangdong Xu, 2022. "From financial structure to economic growth: Theory, evidence and challenges," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(1), February.
    4. Salas, Sergio & Odell, Kathleen, 2022. "Illiquid investments and the non-monotone relationship between credit and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Enisse Kharroubi, 2018. "The effects of prudential regulation, financial development and financial openness on economic growth," BIS Working Papers 752, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Riccardo Pariboni & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Pasquale Tridico, 2020. "When Melius Abundare Is No Longer True: Excessive Financialization and Inequality as Drivers of Stagnation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 216-242, April.

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