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Interest Rate Targets And Speculative Attacks On Public Debt

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  • Posta, Pompeo Della

Abstract

The application of exchange rate target zones modeling to interest rates allows interpreting the puzzles that emerged with the public debt euro area crisis, namely the nonlinear behavior of the interest rates and the fact that some stand-alone countries, not belonging to the euro area, have not been subject to speculative attacks in spite of equally large public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios. As a matter of fact, this model shows that in the case of a noncredible upper threshold for the interest rate (that may be due to both the lack of room for increasing further the required government primary surplus and/or the absence of a monetary authority acting as a lender of last resort), the resulting public debt unsustainability determines an interest rate nonlinearity and makes the crisis possible for public debt levels that would be stable in the presence of a credible interest rate target.

Suggested Citation

  • Posta, Pompeo Della, 2019. "Interest Rate Targets And Speculative Attacks On Public Debt," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(7), pages 2698-2716, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:07:p:2698-2716_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2021. "Government size and speculative attacks on public debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 79-89.
    2. Pompeo Della Posta, 2021. "The economic and social costs of globalisation: A target zone analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 633-644, March.
    3. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "The Eurozone as an Inflation Target Zone," CESifo Working Paper Series 10014, CESifo.
    4. Gabriela Dobrotă & Alina Daniela Voda, 2024. "Stochastic Debt Sustainability Analysis in Romania in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, July.
    5. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "The Eurozone as an inflation target zone," DEM Working Papers 2022/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "The Existential Trilemma of EMU in a Model of Fiscal Target Zone," EconPol Working Paper 66, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "The stabilizing effect of the zero lower bound: A perspective of interest rate target zones," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 61-67.
    8. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    9. Della Posta, Pompeo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2023. "Does an inflation target zone help or hinder price stability?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2023. "Public debt sustainability in a target zone model with heterogeneous agents," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 440-450.
    11. Pompeo Della Posta, 2021. "An analysis of the current backlash of economic globalization in a model with heterogeneous agents," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 101-120, February.
    12. Pompeo Della Posta, 2022. "The Revival of Target Zone Modeling," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 775-805, September.

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