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Endogenous Short-Sale Constraint, Stock Prices And Output Cycles

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  • ZHANG, HAROLD H.

Abstract

This study examines the effect of short-sale constraints on a stock market, in particular, on stock prices, trading volume, and the relationship between stock price movements and output cycles. The economic model features incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents. The short-sale constraint is endogenously determined in the economy and is a function of agents' risk aversion, time preference, and exogenous driving forces. The dynamic model is solved using a policy function iteration algorithm. We find that, for an array of reasonable time-preference parameters and risk-aversion coefficients, the short sale limits range from 27 to 45% of total outstanding shares. Imposing short-sale constraints causes stock prices to move upward. Trading volume is high when some agents have a large amount of stock holdings but incur a negative shock on their nonfinancial income and is low when some agents have few stock holdings and also incur a negative shock to their nonfinancial income. Stock prices are found to be countercyclical and the expected stock returns are procyclical. These countercyclical stock-price movements are shown to be related to the imposition of a short-sale constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Harold H., 1997. "Endogenous Short-Sale Constraint, Stock Prices And Output Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 228-254, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:01:p:228-254_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Harold H., 2000. "Explaining bond returns in heterogeneous agent models: The importance of higher-order moments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1381-1404, September.
    2. Ábrahám, Árpád & Cárceles-Poveda, Eva, 2010. "Endogenous trading constraints with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 974-1004, May.
    3. Judd, Kenneth L. & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2000. "Computing equilibria in infinite-horizon finance economies: The case of one asset," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1047-1078, June.
    4. Ryle Perera, 2013. "Optimal investment, consumption–leisure, insurance and retirement choice," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 689-723, November.
    5. Sarolli, Gian Domenico, 2015. "Cleaning the gears: Counter-cyclical asset trading with financial transactions taxes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 110-122.
    6. Eva Carceles Poveda & Arpad Abraham, 2009. "Tax Reform with Endogenous Borrowing Limits and Incomplete Asset Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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