IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v17y2013i03p477-500_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role Of Sectoral Shifts In The Decline Of Real Gdp Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Burren, Daniel
  • Neusser, Klaus

Abstract

U.S. production has shifted from goods-producing to service-producing industries. We assess whether this shift contributed to the decline in U.S. output volatility over the period 1949–2005 and provide an estimate of its relative importance. Growth rates of GDP by industry are analyzed in a seemingly unrelated multivariate autoregression framework with time-varying innovation covariance matrices. These changing unobserved covariance matrices are modeled as a Wishart autoregressive process of order one, which results in a nonlinear state-space system. The particle filter is used to obtain estimates of the innovation covariance matrix at each point in time. Several counterfactual experiments make it possible to apportion the decline in output volatility between the shift in the sectoral composition and changes in innovations. Our main finding is that the shift into the service sector can explain about 30% of the decline in GDP's volatility, despite the fact that some sectors became even more volatile. This result is robust across a wide variety of alternative specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Burren, Daniel & Neusser, Klaus, 2013. "The Role Of Sectoral Shifts In The Decline Of Real Gdp Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 477-500, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:17:y:2013:i:03:p:477-500_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100511000289/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Everaert, Gerdie & Iseringhausen, Martin, 2018. "Measuring the international dimension of output volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 20-39.
    2. Merlino, Luca Paolo, 2016. "Efficient Sorting In Frictional Labor Markets With Two-Sided Heterogeneity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 95-119, January.
    3. N. V. Suvorov & S. V. Treshchina & Yu. V. Beletskii, 2020. "Design of Methods for Long-Term Forecasting of Development Trends in the Russian Economy (Methodology and Model Toolkit)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 636-646, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:17:y:2013:i:03:p:477-500_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.