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Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Evidence From A Varma, Garch-M Model

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  • SERLETIS, APOSTOLOS
  • SHAHMORADI, AKBAR

Abstract

This paper uses recent advances in financial econometrics to test the Friedman hypothesis that money supply volatility Granger-causes velocity. Comparisons are made among simple-sum and Divisia velocity series at the M1 and M2 levels of monetary aggregation, using quarterly data from 1959:1 to 2004:3. The conclusion is that the Friedman hypothesis cannot be rejected if money supply volatility is modeled explicitly, using models that capture important volatility effects that previous work has ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos & Shahmoradi, Akbar, 2006. "Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Evidence From A Varma, Garch-M Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 652-666, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:10:y:2006:i:05:p:652-666_05
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. william, barnett, 2013. "Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures," MPRA Paper 52310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cronin, David & Kennedy, Bernard, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Impact Money Growth? A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    4. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
    5. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud, 2008. "The Friedman's and Mishkin's Hypotheses (Re)Considered," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308571, HAL.
    8. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2016. "Money, Velocity, and the Stock Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 671-695, September.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & Sajjadur Rahman, 2015. "On the Output Effects of Monetary Variability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 225-236, April.
    10. Apostolos Serletis & Sajjadur Rahman, 2009. "The Output Effects of Money Growth Uncertainty: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 607-630, November.
    11. Apostolos Serletis & Khandokar Istiak & Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Money," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 51-78, February.
    12. Liu Jinan & Serletis Apostolos, 2020. "Money growth variability and output: evidence with credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Jusoh, Mansor & Khalid, Norlin, 2008. "Halaju wang di Malaysia : bukti empirik [The velocity of money in Malaysia : empirical evidence]," MPRA Paper 26966, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jun 2008.
    14. Sajjadur Rahman, 2018. "The Lucas hypothesis on monetary shocks: evidence from a GARCH-in-mean model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1411-1450, June.
    15. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
    16. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "A century and a half of the monetary base-stock market relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 118-124.
    17. repec:clg:wpaper:2012-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. David Cronin & Robert Kelly & Bernard Kennedy, 2011. "Money growth, uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 155-167, May.
    19. Antoni, 2011. "Dynamic relation of money velocity, money volatility and inflation threshold," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(3), pages 245-259, April.
    20. Guerello, Chiara, 2016. "The effect of investors’ confidence on monetary policy transmission mechanism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 248-266.

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