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Pension reform, savings behavior, and capital market performance

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  • BÖRSCH-SUPAN, AXEL H.
  • JENS KÖKE, F.
  • WINTER, JOACHIM K.

Abstract

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are threefold: these countries have large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, relatively thin capital markets and less than benchmark capital performance. The aging process will force the younger generations in these countries to provide more retirement income through own private saving. Capital markets will therefore grow in size and active institutional investors will become more important as intermediaries. The aim of this paper is to show that these changes are likely to generate beneficial side effects in terms of improved productivity and aggregate growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel H. & Jens Köke, F. & Winter, Joachim K., 2005. "Pension reform, savings behavior, and capital market performance," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 87-107, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:4:y:2005:i:01:p:87-107_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Rational Pension Reform," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Sylvester J. Schieber, 2010. "Aging Populations, Pension Operations, Potential Economic Disappointment and Its Allocation," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 293-325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Rational pension reform," Papers 07-25, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
    7. Koomen, Miriam & Wicht, Laurence, 2022. "Pension systems and the current account: An empirical exploration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    9. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    10. Stefan W. Schmitz, 2005. "Demographic Developments, Funded Pension Provision and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 9, pages 93-109.
    11. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus : Theorie und Evidenz," Papers 05-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    12. Dr. Miriam Koomen & Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "Demographics, pension systems, and the current account: an empirical assessment using the IMF current account model," Working Papers 2020-23, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    14. Oksanen, Heikki, 2006. "Actuarial Neutrality across Generations Applied to Public Pensions under Population Ageing: Effects on Government Finances and National Saving," Discussion Paper 284, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "GLOBAL AGING - Issues, Answers, More Questions," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-28, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    16. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    17. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander, 2013. "Modeling the effects of structural reforms and reform backlashes: The cases of pension and labor market reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 999-1007.
    18. Zandberg, Eelco & Spierdijk, Laura, 2013. "Funding of pensions and economic growth: are they really related?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 151-167, April.
    19. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.

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    JEL classification:

    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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