IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jpenef/v21y2022i2p191-217_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Career breaks, broken pensions? Long-run effects of early and late-career unemployment spells on pension entitlements

Author

Listed:
  • Bravo, Jorge M.
  • Herce, Jose A.

Abstract

Unemployment periods and other career breaks have long-term scarring effects on future labour market possibilities, permanently affecting workers' retirement income and standard of living as pensioners. Previous literature has focused on the impact of job loss on working careers with little attention to its impact on pension wealth, particularly the extent to which longevity heterogeneity amplifies unemployment scars. This paper investigates the effect of single and multiple unemployment spells on the lifetime pension entitlements of earnings-related contributory pension schemes, considering the timing and duration of breaks, alternative lifecycle labour earnings profiles, scarring and restoration effects on labour market re-entry, the existence of pension credits and pension accruals for periods spent outside the labour market, longevity heterogeneity, and the accumulation and decumulation redistributive features of the pension scheme. Pension entitlements are estimated using a backward-looking simulation approach based on the actual Portuguese public pension system rules and stylized labour market profiles identified in the SHARE Job Episodes Panel data using a sequence analysis. Longevity heterogeneity is modelled using a stochastic mortality model with a frailty model. Our results show that the timing and duration of unemployment periods is critical, that scarring effects amplify pension wealth losses, that minimum pension provisions, pension credits and pension scheme redistributive features can partially mitigate the impact of unemployment periods on future entitlements, and that the presence of positive correlation between lifetime income and longevity career breaks can amplify the asymmetry in the distribution of pension entitlements across income groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Bravo, Jorge M. & Herce, Jose A., 2022. "Career breaks, broken pensions? Long-run effects of early and late-career unemployment spells on pension entitlements," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 191-217, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:21:y:2022:i:2:p:191-217_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1474747220000189/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cláudia Simões & Luís Oliveira & Jorge M. Bravo, 2021. "Immunization Strategies for Funding Multiple Inflation-Linked Retirement Income Benefits," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2023. "Heterogeneity in longevity, redistribution, and pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 604-639, October.
    3. Jorge Miguel Bravo, 2019. "Funding for longer lives. Retirement wallet and risk-sharing annuities," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 96(02), pages 268-291.
    4. Jesús-Adrián Álvarez & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard, 2020. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," CREATES Research Papers 2020-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Fabrizio Culotta, 2021. "Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and Pension Fairness: An Italian North-South Divide," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Mercedes Ayuso & Jorge M. Bravo & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-28, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:21:y:2022:i:2:p:191-217_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/pef .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.