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Economic and financial approaches to valuing pension liabilities

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  • NOVY-MARX, ROBERT

Abstract

Financial economics holds that payment streams should be valued using discount rates that reflect the cash flows’ risks. In the case of pension liabilities, the appropriate discount rate for a pension fund's liabilities is the expected rate of return on a portfolio that would be held under a liability-driven investment policy. The valuation of defined benefit pension obligations involves choices revolving around deciding: (1) what future benefit payments to recognize today (i.e., which liability concept to use); and (2) from whose point of view to value the liabilities. Moving towards modeling, the distribution of future liabilities using a ‘risk-neutral’ framework, would allow for calculating the present value of the future liabilities more accurately. This would provide policymakers with information more relevant for the decision-making, and it would also permit easier communication of the risks facing the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation's PIMS model via a single univariate statistic.

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  • Novy-Marx, Robert, 2015. "Economic and financial approaches to valuing pension liabilities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 144-150, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:14:y:2015:i:02:p:144-150_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2018. "Does a Discount Rate Rule Ensure a Pension Plan Can Pay Promised Benefits without Excessive Asset Accumulation?," Working Papers 2018-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    2. Luca Larcher & Francis Breedon, 2020. "Discounting and the market valuation of defined benefit pensions," Working Papers 932, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2019. "Managing Uncertainty: The Search for a Golden Discount-Rate Rule for Defined-Benefit Pensions," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 530, January.

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