Devaluation and Domestic Politics in Developing Countries: Indonesia in 1978

Devaluations are traumatic events. The historical record shows that a devaluation doubles the probability that a ruling group would be replaced and triples the likelihood that the Minister of Finance would be relieved. Yet in November 1978, Indonesia devalued its currency by 50 percent when observers were not predicting a balance of payments crisis in the near future. The devaluation was undertaken to effect an income transfer to the countryside and the Outer Islands, the centers of traditional agricultural export industries. Since this action contradicts the logic of the dominant models of the Indonesian state, we propose that authoritarian corporatism is a more accurate characterization of the state-society relationship. The economic conditions in the countryside and Outer Islands are important to policy makers because the former has a long history of agrarian radicalism and the latter a history of secessions.