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2016 Hes Presidential Address: Statistical Inference In Economics, 1920–1965: Changes In Meaning And Practice

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  • Biddle, Jeff

Abstract

I review changes over time in the meaning that economists in the US attributed to the phrase “statistical inference,” as well as changes in how inference was conducted. Prior to WWII, leading statistical economists rejected probability theory as a source of measures and procedures to be used in statistical inference. Trygve Haavelmo and the early Cowles Commission econometricians developed an approach to statistical inference based on probability theory, but the arguments they offered in defense of this approach were not always responsive to the concerns of earlier empirical economists that the data available to economists did not satisfy the assumptions required for such an approach. Despite this, after a period of about twenty-five years, a consensus developed that methods of inference derived from probability theory were an almost essential part of empirical research in economics. I conclude with some speculation on possible reasons for this transformation in thinking about statistical inference.

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  • Biddle, Jeff, 2017. "2016 Hes Presidential Address: Statistical Inference In Economics, 1920–1965: Changes In Meaning And Practice," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 149-173, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jhisec:v:39:y:2017:i:02:p:149-173_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Vallois & Dorian Jullien, 2018. "A history of statistical methods in experimental economics," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 1455-1492, November.
    2. Nicolas Vallois & Dorian Jullien, 2017. "Estimating Rationality in Economics: A History of Statistical Methods in Experimental Economics," Working Papers halshs-01651070, HAL.
    3. Nicolas Vallois & Dorian Jullien, 2017. "Estimating Rationality in Economics: A History of Statistical Methods in Experimental Economics," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    4. Espinel, Camila Orozco, 2022. "Milton Friedman’s Empirical Approach to Economics. Searching for Scientific Authority while Shaping the University of Chicago Economics Department," OSF Preprints yab86, Center for Open Science.
    5. Vincent Carret, 2022. "Investment Planning and the Input-Output Model in Postwar Europe," Working Papers hal-03895580, HAL.

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