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Irving Fisher and Financial Economics: The Equity Premium Puzzle, the Predictability of Stock Prices, and Intertemporal Allocation Under Risk

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  • Dimand, Robert W.

Abstract

Irving Fisher is renowned as the pundit who declared in October 1929 that stock prices appeared to have reached a permanently high plateau and who, having amassed a net worth of ten million dollars in the boom of the 1920s, proceeded to lose eleven million dollars of that fortune in the crash, which, as John Kenneth Galbraith (1977, p. 192) remarked, “was a substantial sum, even for an economics professor.” Along with the Dow-Jones index, Fisher's reputation for understanding financial markets declined relative to that of Roger Babson, the stock forecaster, amateur economist, and founder of Babson College, who presciently predicted the stock market crash of autumn 1929 (and, with less prescience, the stock market crashes of 1926, 1927, and 1928, and the stock market recovery of 1930). An editorial in The Commercial and Financial Chronicle (November 9, 1929) declared of Fisher: “The learned professor is wrong as he usually is when he talks about the stock market” (quoted by Galbraith 1972, p. 151).

Suggested Citation

  • Dimand, Robert W., 2007. "Irving Fisher and Financial Economics: The Equity Premium Puzzle, the Predictability of Stock Prices, and Intertemporal Allocation Under Risk," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 153-166, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jhisec:v:29:y:2007:i:02:p:153-166_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Argandoña, Antonio, 2013. "Irving Fisher: un gran economista," IESE Research Papers D/1082, IESE Business School.
    2. Tiago Cardao-Pito & João Silva Ferreira, 2018. "Demystifying fair value accounting: rejoinder to Baker and Markarian," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 199-202, September.
    3. Tiago Cardao-Pito, 2017. "Classes in Maximizing Shareholders’ Wealth: Irving Fisher’s Theory of the Economic Organization in Corporate Financial Economics Textbooks," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 11(4), December.
    4. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    5. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    6. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
    7. Tiago Cardao-Pito, 2017. "Organizations as Producers of Operating Product Flows to Members of Society," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(3), pages 21582440177, August.

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