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Risk-Neutral Skewness, Informed Trading, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

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  • Chordia, Tarun
  • Lin, Tse-Chun
  • Xiang, Vincent

Abstract

In this article, we use volatility surface data from options contracts to document a strong, robust, and positive cross-sectional relation between risk-neutral skewness (RNS) and subsequent stock returns. The differential return between high- and low-RNS stocks amounts to 0.17% per week. Preannouncement RNS is positively related to earnings announcement returns, and the positive RNS–return relation is more pronounced for other nonscheduled news releases. This suggests that it is informed trading that drives the positive relation between RNS and subsequent stock returns. We also find that RNS contains incremental information beyond trading signals captured by option-implied volatility and volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Chordia, Tarun & Lin, Tse-Chun & Xiang, Vincent, 2021. "Risk-Neutral Skewness, Informed Trading, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(5), pages 1713-1737, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:56:y:2021:i:5:p:1713-1737_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Mengyu Zhang & Thanos Verousis & Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, 2022. "Information and the arrival rate of option trading volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 605-644, April.
    2. Dai, Yiming & Jiang, Yuexiang & Long, Huaigang & Wang, Hui & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of Chinese stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    3. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Zhang, Xinxin & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2022. "The asymmetric relationship between returns and implied higher moments: Evidence from the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Zhenya Liu & Weiqing Tang, 2022. "Risk‐neutral skewness and commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 751-785, April.
    7. Silvia Bressan & Alex Weissensteiner, 2023. "Option-Implied Skewness and the Value of Financial Intermediaries," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 207-229, October.
    8. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2023. "Downside risk matters once the lottery effect is controlled: explaining risk–return relationship in the Indian equity market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 27-43, February.
    9. Ian Garrett & Adnan Gazi, 2024. "Early exercise, implied volatility spread and future stock return: Jumps bind them all," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 720-743, May.
    10. Junyu Zhang & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2023. "Risk‐neutral moments and return predictability: International evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1086-1111, August.
    11. Li, Xiaowei & Wu, Zhengyu & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Lu, 2024. "Risk-neutral skewness and stock market returns: A time-series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Jitsawatpaiboon, Kanokrak & Ruan, Xinfeng, 2023. "The COVID-19 risk in the cross-section of equity options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

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