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Do Mutual Fund Investors Overweight the Probability of Extreme Payoffs in the Return Distribution?

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  • Akbas, Ferhat
  • Genc, Egemen

Abstract

We investigate the role of extreme positive payoffs in the distribution of monthly fund returns in investors’ mutual fund preferences. We document a positive and significant relationship between the maximum style-adjusted monthly return (MAX) and future fund flows. The relationship is robust to controlling for average performance, volatility, skewness, and various other fund characteristics. Our findings are consistent with the notion that fund investors overweight the probability of high payoff states in the past return distribution. We further show that MAX is not a useful predictor of future performance and that an increase in a fund’s visibility does not explain our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Akbas, Ferhat & Genc, Egemen, 2020. "Do Mutual Fund Investors Overweight the Probability of Extreme Payoffs in the Return Distribution?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 223-261, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:55:y:2020:i:1:p:223-261_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Cheng & Han, Jing, 2023. "Prospect theory and mutual fund flows: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Auer, Benjamin R. & Marohn, Marcel, 2024. "Computational dynamics of information ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Gupta, Nilesh & Mishra, Anil V & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Prospect theory preferences and global mutual fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2023. "Tail risk, beta anomaly, and demand for lottery: what explains cross-sectional variations in equity returns?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 775-804, August.
    5. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Omori, Kozo & Kitamura, Tomoki, 2023. "Investor response to Morningstar's ratings, category information, and alpha in the Japanese mutual fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2023. "Downside risk matters once the lottery effect is controlled: explaining risk–return relationship in the Indian equity market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 27-43, February.
    8. Vafai, Nima & Rakowski, David, 2024. "The sources of portfolio volatility and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Liu, Jianxiang & Yi, WenYu, 2024. "Does the style drift caused by frequent cross-industry portfolio rebalancing harm fund performance? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Agarwal, Vikas & Jiang, Lei & Wen, Quan, 2020. "Why do mutual funds hold lottery stocks?," CFR Working Papers 20-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. Yang Song, 2020. "The Mismatch Between Mutual Fund Scale and Skill," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2555-2589, October.
    12. Li, C. Wei & Tiwari, Ashish & Tong, Lin, 2022. "Mutual fund tournaments and fund Active Share," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Hu, Shiyang & Xiang, Cheng & Quan, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Salience theory and mutual fund flows: Empirical evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Yu, Bin & Shen, Yifan & Jin, Xuejun & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Does prospect theory explain mutual fund performance? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.

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