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A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States

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  • Andreasen, Martin M.
  • Meldrum, Andrew

Abstract

We study whether it is better to enforce the zero lower bound (ZLB) in models of U.S. Treasury yields using a shadow rate model or a quadratic term structure model. We show that the models achieve a similar in-sample fit and perform comparably in matching conditional expectations of future yields. However, when the recent ZLB period is included in the sample, the models’ ability to match conditional expectations away from the ZLB deteriorates because the time-series dynamics of the pricing factors change. In addition, neither model provides a reasonable description of conditional volatilities when yields are away from the ZLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreasen, Martin M. & Meldrum, Andrew, 2019. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2261-2292, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:05:p:2261-2292_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kjær, Mads Markvart & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Mirkov, Nikola & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 440, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Xin Zhang, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 2024-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Nikola Mirkov & Xin Zhang, 2023. "Quantitative Easing and Safe Asset Scarcity: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 2023-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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