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Time-Varying Beta and the Value Premium

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  • Guo, Hui
  • Wu, Chaojiang
  • Yu, Yan

Abstract

We model conditional market beta and alpha as flexible functions of state variables identified via a formal variable-selection procedure. In the post-1963 sample, the beta of the value premium comoves strongly with unemployment, inflation, and the price–earnings ratio in a countercyclical manner. We also uncover a novel nonlinear dependence of alpha on business conditions: It falls sharply and even becomes negative during severe economic downturns but is positive and flat otherwise. The conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) performs better than the unconditional CAPM, but this does not fully explain the value premium. Our findings are consistent with a conditional CAPM with rare disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Hui & Wu, Chaojiang & Yu, Yan, 2017. "Time-Varying Beta and the Value Premium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1551-1576, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:04:p:1551-1576_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Galvani, Valentina, 2021. "The value premium during flights," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    2. Mikihito Nishi, 2024. "Estimating Time-Varying Parameters of Various Smoothness in Linear Models via Kernel Regression," Papers 2406.14046, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Qiuhua Xu, 2020. "Testing Capital Asset Pricing Models using Functional-Coefficient Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202009, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Bingduo Yang & Christian M. Hafner & Guannan Liu & Wei Long, 2021. "Semiparametric estimation and variable selection for single‐index copula models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 962-988, November.
    6. Russell Davidson & Niels S. Grønborg, 2018. "Time-varying parameters: New test tailored to applications in finance and macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2018-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Cai, Zongwu & Fang, Ying & Xu, Qiuhua, 2022. "Testing capital asset pricing models using functional-coefficient panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 114-133.
    8. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "How to Estimate Beta?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-617, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "Estimating beta: Forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 91-118.

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