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Systematic Tail Risk

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  • van Oordt, Maarten R. C.
  • Zhou, Chen

Abstract

We test for the presence of a systematic tail risk premium in the cross section of expected returns by applying a measure of the sensitivity of assets to extreme market downturns, the tail beta. Empirically, historical tail betas help predict the future performance of stocks in extreme market downturns. During a market crash, stocks with historically high tail betas suffer losses that are approximately 2 to 3 times larger than their low-tail-beta counterparts. However, we find no evidence of a premium associated with tail betas. The theoretically additive and empirically persistent tail betas can help assess portfolio tail risks.

Suggested Citation

  • van Oordt, Maarten R. C. & Zhou, Chen, 2016. "Systematic Tail Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 685-705, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:02:p:685-705_00
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