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Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks

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  • Atanasov, Victoria
  • Nitschka, Thomas

Abstract

We apply an empirical approximation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to show that cross-sectional dispersion in currency returns can be rationalized by differences in currency excess returns’ sensitivities to the market return’s cash-flow news component. This finding echoes recent explanations of the value and growth stock market anomaly. The distinction between cash-flow news and discount-rate news is key to jointly explain average stock and currency returns. Our analysis reveals the presence of a common source of systematic risk in stock and foreign currency returns that is reflected in the market return’s cash-flow news component.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "Foreign Currency Returns and Systematic Risks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1-2), pages 231-250, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:1-2:p:231-250_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ballotta, Laura & Deelstra, Griselda & Rayée, Grégory, 2017. "Multivariate FX models with jumps: Triangles, Quantos and implied correlation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1181-1199.
    2. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "What News Drive Variation in Swiss and US Bond and Stock Excess Returns?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 89-118, June.
    4. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
    5. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Currency carry trades and the conditional factor model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 198-208.
    6. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
    7. Danau, Daniel, 2020. "Prudence and preference for flexibility gain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 776-785.
    8. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    9. Polsitty R. Kumar & Giuseppe T. Cirella, 2020. "Globalization – Reflective Outlook," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 9(1), pages 42-50, March.
    10. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2021. "Market news co-moments and currency returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1819-1863, October.
    11. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Carry trades and commodity risk factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-129.
    12. Laura Ballota & Griselda Deelstra & Grégory Rayée, 2015. "Quanto Implied Correlation in a Multi-Lévy Framework," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Tan T. M. Le & Franck Martin & Duc K. Nguyen, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of global currencies: a conditional Granger-causality approach," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2018-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    14. Maio, Paulo & Zeng, Ming, 2023. "On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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