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Trading in the Options Market around Financial Analysts’ Consensus Revisions

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  • Hayunga, Darren K.
  • Lung, Peter P.

Abstract

This article investigates the options market around a revision in the financial analysts’ consensus recommendation. The results demonstrate that options investors trade in the correct direction of the upcoming revision approximately 3 days prior to the announcement. We find this behavior in option-implied prices, implied volatilities, and options trading volume. Tests confirm that the options market leads the stock market before the financial analysts’ revision. Moreover, using all firms with outstanding options, an out-of-sample analysis produces a profitable zero-cost trading strategy net of transaction costs based on the relative valuations between the synthetic and the underlying equity security.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayunga, Darren K. & Lung, Peter P., 2014. "Trading in the Options Market around Financial Analysts’ Consensus Revisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 725-747, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:49:y:2014:i:03:p:725-747_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Zhang, 2019. "Is options trading informed? Evidence from credit rating change announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1085-1106, September.
    2. Scott Fung & Robert Loveland, 2020. "When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1459-1485, October.
    3. Pei Peter Lung & Pisun Xu, 2014. "Tipping and Option Trading," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 671-701, September.
    4. Hao, (Grace) Qing, 2016. "Is there information leakage prior to share repurchase announcements? Evidence from daily options trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-101.
    5. (Grace) Qing Hao & Keming Li, 2021. "Informed options trading prior to insider trades," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 459-480, August.
    6. Han‐Sheng Chen & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2019. "Overconfidence among option traders," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 61-91, January.
    7. Ming‐Yu Liu, 2019. "Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option‐implied information," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 499-521, April.
    8. Mahmoud Delshadi & Mahmoud Hosseinniakani & Zabihollah Rezaee, 2023. "Does options trading deter real activities manipulation?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 673-699, August.
    9. Jun Zhang, 2018. "Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 81-103, March.
    10. Chen, Sipeng & Li, Gang, 2023. "Why does option-implied volatility forecast realized volatility? Evidence from news events," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    12. Liu, Dehong & Qiu, Qi & Hughen, J. Christopher & Lung, Peter, 2019. "Price discovery in the price disagreement between equity and option markets: Evidence from SSE ETF50 options of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 557-571.

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