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Changing Risk, Return, and Leverage: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Maroney, Neal
  • Naka, Atsuyuki
  • Wansi, Theresia

Abstract

This paper explores risk and return relations in six Asian equity markets affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. After the start of the crisis, national equity betas increased and average returns fell substantially. Beta increases due to leverage linked to exchange rates. The increase in expected return needed to accompany this rise in beta is made possible through the creation of capital losses that lower average returns. We propose a new probability-based asset pricing model that captures leverage effects using valuation ratios. Results show the role of leverage in explaining the likelihood of the financial crises. Crosssectional evidence supports time-series findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Maroney, Neal & Naka, Atsuyuki & Wansi, Theresia, 2004. "Changing Risk, Return, and Leverage: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 143-166, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:39:y:2004:i:01:p:143-166_00
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    1. Chen, Shi & Huang, Fu-Wei & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2023. "Green technology choices under the cap-and-trade mechanism with insurer green finance in a dragon-king environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Ain Shahrier, Nur, 2022. "Contagion effects in ASEAN-5 exchange rates during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Wong, Woon K., 2010. "Backtesting value-at-risk based on tail losses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 526-538, June.
    4. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Palliere, Clement, 2009. "Stock index reaction to large price changes: Evidence from major Asian stock indexes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 444-459, September.
    5. Mark Casson, 2011. "Entrepreneurial failure and economic crisis: an historical perspective," Working Papers 11015, Economic History Society.
    6. Yao, Yi & Yang, Rong & Liu, Zhiyuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Government intervention and institutional trading strategy: Evidence from a transition country," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Mustafa Hussein Abd-Allah & Wael Ibrahim Abdelrahim Hamimy, 2024. "The Impact of Financial Leverage on the Pricing Risk in the Egyptian Stock Market," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 11-22, May.
    8. Panait, Iulian & Constantinescu, Alexandru, 2012. "Stylized facts of the daily and monthly returns for the European stock indices during 2007-2012," MPRA Paper 44249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chuang, I-Yuan & Chiu, Yen-Chen & Edward Wang, C., 2008. "The performance of Asian airlines in the recent financial turmoil based on VaR and modified Sharpe ratio," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 257-262.
    10. Yao, Yi & Yang, Rong & Liu, Zhiyuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2013. "Government intervention and institutional trading strategy: Evidence from a transition country," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 44-68.
    11. French, Joseph J. & Naka, Atsuyuki, 2013. "Dynamic relationships among equity flows, equity returns and dividends: Behavior of U.S. investors in China and India," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 13-29.
    12. Choudhry, Taufiq & Lu, Lin & Peng, Ke, 2010. "Time-varying beta and the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from the Asian industrial sectors," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 228-234, December.
    13. Berger, Dave & Turtle, H.J., 2011. "Emerging market crises and US equity market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 32-41.
    14. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2007. "Volatility clustering, leverage effects, and jump dynamics in the US and emerging Asian equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2751-2769, September.
    15. Bellelah, M.A. & Bellelah, M.O. & Ben Ameur, H. & Ben Hafsia, R., 2017. "Does the equity premium puzzle persist during financial crisis? The case of the French equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 851-866.
    16. Panait, Iulian & Slavescu, Ecaterina Oana, 2011. "Volatility and causality study of the daily returns on the Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2007-2011," MPRA Paper 41786, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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