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Box Spread Arbitrage Profits following the 1987 Market Crash: Real or Illusory?

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  • Hemler, Michael L.
  • Miller, Thomas W.

Abstract

We examine market efficiency before and after the 1987 Market Crash using the box spread strategy implemented with European-style S&P 500 Index (SPX) options. Before the Crash, apparent arbitrage opportunities were rare and simulated trades were unprofitable assuming a one-minute execution delay. After the Crash, apparent arbitrage opportunities were frequent and simulated trades were profitable even assuming a five-minute execution delay. Our analysis makes the routine assumption that quotes are good until updated to construct a time series of prevailing quotes sampled at 30-second intervals. If this assumption is valid, then arbitrage profits were actually available. If this assumption is invalid, then such profits could have been illusory. Either scenario, however, implies that SPX market efficiency decreased following the Crash—prevailing price quotes repeatedly failed to satisfy the fundamental parity relation underlying the box spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Hemler, Michael L. & Miller, Thomas W., 1997. "Box Spread Arbitrage Profits following the 1987 Market Crash: Real or Illusory?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 71-90, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:32:y:1997:i:01:p:71-90_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Sandås, Patrik, 2010. "Does information drive trading in option strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2370-2385, October.
    2. Joseph K. W. Fung & Henry M. K. Mok & Kenneth C. K. Wong, 2004. "Pricing Efficiency in a Thin Market with Competitive Market Makers: Box Spread Strategies in the Hang Seng Index Options Market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 435-454, August.
    3. Chin‐Ho Chen & Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung, 2020. "Arbitrage opportunities, liquidity provision, and trader types in an index option market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 279-307, March.
    4. Okorie, David Iheke & Bouri, Elie & Mazur, Mieszko, 2024. "NFTs versus conventional cryptocurrencies: A comparative analysis of market efficiency around COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-151.
    5. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 1999. "Arbitrage and endogenous market integration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Fung, Joseph K. W. & Mok, Henry M. K., 2003. "Early unwinding of options-futures arbitrage with bid/ask quotations and transaction prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-133, July.

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