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Inflation Forecast Errors and Time Variation in Term Premia

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  • De Bondt, Werner F. M.
  • Bange, Mary M.

Abstract

The expectations theory of the term structure is well known to give wrong signals as to the future course of long-term interest rates. One explanation involves rational time-varying term premia. However, the “anomaly” may also be due to inflation forecast errors. We study survey forecasts of inflation. It seems that the respondents' forecasts are insufficiently adaptive. Interest rates reflect expectations similar to the inflation forecasts. As a result, past survey forecast errors reliably predict premia on U.S. Government Bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • De Bondt, Werner F. M. & Bange, Mary M., 1992. "Inflation Forecast Errors and Time Variation in Term Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 479-496, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:27:y:1992:i:04:p:479-496_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    2. Hamid Baghestani, 2016. "Interest rate movements and US consumers’ inflation forecast errors: is there a link?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 623-630, July.
    3. Kasimir Kaliva, 2008. "The Fisher effect, survey data and time-varying volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-10, August.
    4. George A. Krause, 2006. "Beyond the Norm," Rationality and Society, , vol. 18(2), pages 157-191, May.
    5. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340, Elsevier.
    6. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    8. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
    9. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
    10. María O González & Frank Skinner & Samuel Agyei-Ampomah, 2013. "Term structure information and bond strategies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.

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