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Delivery Uncertainty and the Efficiency of Futures Markets

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  • Kamara, Avraham

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the delivery basis risk embedded in nearly all futures contracts on efficiency tests of these markets. Examining soybean futures contracts, we show that delivery basis risk has important implications for market efficiency tests. Assuming no delivery basis risk, the market efficiency hypothesis is rejected. However, futures prices contain significant time-varying expected delivery basis and time-varying expected delivery risk premiums. Once these expected delivery basis and delivery risk premiums are accounted for, the apparent inefficiency is eliminated. Equilibrium spot prices also contain significant time-varying expected delivery risk premiums.

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  • Kamara, Avraham, 1990. "Delivery Uncertainty and the Efficiency of Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 45-64, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:25:y:1990:i:01:p:45-64_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Kit Wong, 2014. "Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 413-421, October.
    2. Lin, James Wuh, 1996. "Arbitrage, carrying costs, and inflation: A reexamination of market efficiency in treasury bill futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 207-222.
    3. Reichardt, Susana, 2006. "On the future contract quality option: a new look," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063711, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    4. Alejandro Balbas & Susana Reichardt, 2010. "On the future contract quality option: a new look," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1217-1229.

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