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The Influence of Market Conditions on Event-Study Residuals

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  • Klein, April
  • Rosenfeld, James

Abstract

This paper presents evidence that the mean-adjusted returns and raw-market returns models are misspecified when the event under investigation occurs during either bull or bear markets. To demonstrate this phenomenon, simulation techniques as well as an actual event are employed to examine the reliability of four different return-generating models. When the event occurs during a bull (bear) market, both the mean-adjusted and raw-market returns models produce upwardly (downwardly) biased positive (negative) abnormal returns. This results in statistically significant cumulative abnormal returns over selected preevent and postevent intervals. In contrast, both the market-adjusted and single-index models show far less evidence of any unusual price activity over these same intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, April & Rosenfeld, James, 1987. "The Influence of Market Conditions on Event-Study Residuals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 345-351, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:22:y:1987:i:03:p:345-351_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhixuan & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Ailan, 2022. "How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Panayiotis C. Andreou & Christodoulos Louca & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "Short-horizon event study estimation with a STAR model and real contaminated events," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 673-697, October.
    3. Timár, Barnabás, 2023. "A klímavédelmi események hatása a köztudatra és a tőkepiacra. Empirikus vizsgálat Google-trends- és ETF-adatokon [The impact of climate events on public perception and capital markets. An empirical," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 713-745.
    4. Ron Bird & Daniel Choi & Danny Yeung, 2014. "Market uncertainty, market sentiment, and the post-earnings announcement drift," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 45-73, July.
    5. Xu, Rong & Liu, Yaodong & Hu, Nan & Guo, Jie (Michael), 2022. "What drives individual investors in the bear market?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6).
    6. Hardjo Koerniadi & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti & Alireza Tourani-Rad, 2016. "Natural Disasters — Blessings In Disguise?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2013. "With whom and in what is it better to save? Personal pensions in the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 13/304, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    8. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    9. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    10. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Iffat Ishrat Khan, 2024. "Reactions of Global Stock Markets to the Russia–Ukraine War: An Empirical Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 755-778, September.
    11. Aloui, Donia & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Guesmi, Khaled & Mzoughi, Hela, 2023. "Managing natural resource prices in a geopolitical risk environment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    13. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Sattar A. Mansi & Oumar Sy, 2023. "Event studies in international finance research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(2), pages 344-364, March.
    14. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    15. Mzoughi, Hela & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "The bitcoin market reaction to the launch of central bank digital currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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