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An Empirical Test of a Valuation Model for American Options on Futures Contracts

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  • Shastri, Kuldeep
  • Tandon, Kishore

Abstract

Pricing models for American call and put options on futures contracts are derived herein. These models are used to investigate the efficiency of the market for options on Standard & Poor 500 and German Mark futures. The evidence presented here indicates that market prices for these options deviate substantially from their corresponding model prices. In addition, it is shown that a hedging strategy originated at prices that indicate a deviation of market from model is successful in translating the observed mispricing into excess profits after transactions costs. However, these net profits are eliminated if the origination of the strategy is delayed by one trade, or if bid-ask spreads are accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Shastri, Kuldeep & Tandon, Kishore, 1986. "An Empirical Test of a Valuation Model for American Options on Futures Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 377-392, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:21:y:1986:i:04:p:377-392_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
    2. Xu, Xinzhong & Taylor, Stephen J., 1995. "Conditional volatility and the informational efficiency of the PHLX currency options market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-821, August.
    3. Mitchell, James L. & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2017. "Effect of Price Expectations and Market Volatility on Sale Rates at Superior Livestock Video Auctions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258425, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Hilliard, Jitka, 2013. "Testing Greeks and price changes in the S&P 500 options and futures contract: A regression analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 51-58.
    5. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
    6. Gong, Pu & He, Zhiwei & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2006. "Pricing convertible bonds based on a multi-stage compound-option model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 449-462.
    7. Pelly, Robert A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1991. "An Investigation Of Pricing Models For Live Cattle Futures Options," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271202, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Carlos A. Ulibarri & Peter C. Anselmo & Karen Hovespian & Jacob Tolk & Ionut Florescu, 2009. "'Noise-trader risk' and Bayesian market making in FX derivatives: rolling loaded dice?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 268-279.
    9. Poon, Winnie P. H. & Duett, Edwin H., 1998. "An empirical examination of currency futures options under stochastic interest rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-50.
    10. Shastri, Kuldeep & Sirodom, Kulpatra, 1995. "An empirical test of the BS and CSR valuation models for warrants listed in Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 465-483, December.
    11. Christian-Oliver Ewald & Aihua Zhang & Zhe Zong, 2019. "On the calibration of the Schwartz two-factor model to WTI crude oil options and the extended Kalman Filter," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 119-130, November.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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