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Divergence of Opinion and Risk

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  • Bart, John
  • Masse, Isidore J.

Abstract

Edward Miller [5], expanding on the work of Williams [8], Smith [6], and Lintner [4], has proposed a direct relationship between a stock's “risk” and its “divergence of opinion.” Under conditions of uncertainty, potential investors in a stock arrive at different assessments of expected return. Thisvariation in expectations is characterized as the stock's divergence of opinion. Miller argues persuasively that at a point in time a stock's price does not reflect the expectations of all potential investors, but rather the expectations of only the most optimistic minority who are trading the issue. As long as this minority can absorb the entire supply of stock, an increase (decrease) in divergence of opinion-leaving the average expectation unchanged-will increase (decrease) the market clearing price.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart, John & Masse, Isidore J., 1981. "Divergence of Opinion and Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 23-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:16:y:1981:i:01:p:23-34_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Bounded Rationality and Market Dysfunctionality," Research Paper Series 233, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing Theory: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Research Paper Series 186, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Aasif Shah & Arif Tali & Qaiser Farooq, 2018. "Beta through the prism of wavelets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2017. "Firm size, ownership structure, and systematic liquidity risk: The case of an emerging market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 62-80.
    6. Jacques A. Schnabel, 2009. "Divergence of opinion and valuation in a mean‐variance framework," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 148-154, July.
    7. Rieger, Jörg, 2014. "Financial Integration with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working Papers 0568, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

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