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Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of “Positive Checks” on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910

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  • Gu, Yanfeng
  • Kung, James Kai-sing

Abstract

After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grainsurplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Yanfeng & Kung, James Kai-sing, 2021. "Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of “Positive Checks” on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1137-1172, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:81:y:2021:i:4:p:1137-1172_5
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