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The Persistence of Harvest Shocks in Medieval England

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  • Bekar, Cliff T.

Abstract

I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks may persist. For my sample I find that a failed harvest increased the probability of subsequent harvest failure by 20–30 percent. Grain yields are analyzed as a strongly balanced panel by year, manor, and crop. While I reject the hypothesis that harvests were self-contained annual events, I caution against linking harvest persistence directly to runs in grain prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekar, Cliff T., 2019. "The Persistence of Harvest Shocks in Medieval England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 954-988, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:79:y:2019:i:4:p:954-988_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Marending, Myriam & Tripodi, Stefano, 2022. "Gone with the Wind: The Welfare Effect of Desert Locust Outbreaks," Working Papers 1-2022, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Liam Brunt & Edmund Cannon, 2022. "English farmers’ wheat storage and sales in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(3), pages 932-959, August.
    3. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Andrea Seim & Heli Huhtamaa, 2021. "Climate and society in European history," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    4. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Peter Thejll & Bo Christiansen & Andrea Seim & Claudia Hartl & Jan Esper, 2022. "The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(1), pages 29-77, January.

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