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Why Did Prices Rise in the 1930s?

Author

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  • Romer, Christina D.

Abstract

Prices rose in most years between 1933 and 1941 even though output was substantially below trend. This inflation cannot be explained as simply the effect of devaluation and changes in expectations. Rather, because prewar price changes depended significantly on the growth rate of real output, the extraordinarily rapid growth after 1933 was an important force leading to inflation. At the same time, the NIRA, by encouraging minimum wages and collusive pricing arrangements, caused a crucial diminution of the usual deviation-from-trend effect. The conjunction of these forces caused inflation at a time when the U.S. economy remained depressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Romer, Christina D., 1999. "Why Did Prices Rise in the 1930s?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 167-199, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:59:y:1999:i:01:p:167-199_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Fei, Rilong & Wang, Haolin & Wen, Zihao & Yuan, Zhen & Yuan, Kaihua & Chunga, Joseph, 2021. "Tracking factor substitution and the rebound effect of China’s agricultural energy consumption: A new research perspective from asymmetric response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Pietro Cova & Vitor Gaspar & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Hou Wang, 2016. "Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?," IMF Working Papers 2016/157, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    4. Taylor, Jason E. & Neumann, Todd C., 2013. "The effect of institutional regime change within the new deal on industrial output and labor markets," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 582-598.
    5. Price V. Fishback & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & William C. Horrace & Shawn Kantor & Jaret Treber, 2011. "The Influence of the Home Owners' Loan Corporation on Housing Markets During the 1930s," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1782-1813.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jason E. Taylor, 2011. "Work‐sharing During the Great Depression: Did the ‘President's Reemployment Agreement’ Promote Reemployment?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 133-158, January.

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